With the gold price curves, the expert predicted a glorious future for the gold production. Up to the year 2016, this metal curve was falling down, but the situation changed last year, and now, the gold has reached the important psychological mark of 1300 US dollars per ounce. According to Mr.Lopatnikov, it is only the beginning, the gold can reach the higher marks by this year end, and such a positive forecast is well justified.
«One of the reasons of the gold price turning round is that the investment demand is back, but the greater and more important factor is the gold quantity, which was attracted to the funds, which keep the gold as a physical metal, - Alexander Lopatnikov explained, – It is a toll, which is looked forward to in Kazakhstan, Russia and many other countries, since at present, there is no potential to invest in the gold assets in our market for the time being».
Herewith, the export highlights the slowdown at the jewellery market, which consumes 50% of the gold in the world. It is related to the lowered appetites in India and China. In the Celestial Empire, the gold reserves grew not so fast, due to the need to support the national currency. In India, they fought against the unearned income and won, including the gold consumption in the jewellery industry. Meanwhile, according to Mr.Lopatnikov, the well-being of Chinese population is growing, which means the new possibilities to invest in the physical gold.
The US dollar exchange rate is a very important factor, too. According to Mr.Lopatnikov, it has reached its limit and will start to decline.
«The curve shows us that the dollar has no way to grow. It has already reached its previous peak of 2004. Since all primary products are dollardenominated, the raw dilution factor, which was defined by the increasing cost of measurement the unit – the US dollar, was largely recovered. Therefore, there are some prerequisites that the weakening dollar will lead to the growing gold price» – Mr.Lopatnikov explained.
As to the securities market, which draws the larger part of financial resources, the correction is expected there in the near future. According to Mr.Lopatnikov, the investors now are getting prepared that within 30 years they won’t return their investments, not to speak of multiplying them. In such a situation, the gold can become the best investment tool.
Macroeconomic and political risks, which occur now, are one more favourable factor for the gold, since the precious metal in troublesome times is a reliable asset. «We see some uncertainties in many important parameters – from geographically different conflicts to the world economy, which are represented by the US and China. Some economists and analysts have the new expression – «unlikely event risks». Nobody expected that Donald Trump would become the US President, and he did it. In terms of gold, it is a favourable factor as well», - Alexander Lopatnikov noted.
He said that none of macrofactors, which positively affected the gold price in the last year, disappeared, and this year, these factors would continue. It means that the gold production will remain an attractive investment area. «There are practically no companies worldwide, which managed to lose while producing the gold, he states. Certainly, there are bad and very bad projects, which should have never been launched. However, if you do it more or less right, if you have a well-organized process, if you are within the right jurisdiction, if you are not under the oppressing taxation, you must have done something totally wrong to lose in gold» – Mr.Lopatnikov explained. Meanwhile, the expert supposed that the gold rise would not be endless, and the new deposits might be unproductive, but it is the best time to invest into the gold and expand the mining projects.